Toadwater

Toadwater Inn => A Helping Hand => Topic started by: kaaskop on July 31, 2011, 08:15:30 pm



Title: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: kaaskop on July 31, 2011, 08:15:30 pm
I read somewhere that you get like 1 every crop on average. But I don't think thats true.
Can some one tel me the actual odds of it?


Title: Re: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: Lackey Twisti on July 31, 2011, 08:56:44 pm
It's true. That's the actual odds.


Title: Re: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: Travis on July 31, 2011, 09:08:09 pm
Not true.  The odds are 30% per crop.


Title: Re: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: Lackey Twisti on July 31, 2011, 09:38:17 pm
You changed it ?


Title: Re: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: kaaskop on July 31, 2011, 10:28:30 pm
Well then something is wrong on my island, because I get the normal 1/10


Title: Re: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: Travis on August 01, 2011, 01:32:46 am
You changed it ?

Yes, a long time ago.


Title: Re: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: arp on August 01, 2011, 05:10:02 am
The common knowledge has always been that you are 4x as likely to find a GR while farming on your island.  Since normal odds are 1 GR in 10 crops, the improved odds would be 1 GR in 2.5 crops.


Title: Re: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: kaaskop on August 01, 2011, 10:04:41 am
I'm confused. So what is it? 1 per 2.5 crop or 1 per crop or 30%?


Title: Re: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: Travis on August 01, 2011, 03:19:40 pm
It's 30% according to the code.

Try planting 25 crops and counting how many grs you find.


Title: Re: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: Lackey Twisti on August 01, 2011, 04:01:35 pm
The odds of finding 30% GRs in a test sample of 25 are exactly 0.00% ;)


Title: Re: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: kaaskop on August 01, 2011, 06:41:44 pm
I just farmed 25 crops on my island and I found 10 radishes.
So is Arp right then? Its 0,25%?

Because it's definitely not 30%...would be sweet though haha.



Title: Re: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: Travis on August 01, 2011, 07:35:13 pm
Code wise, it's 30%.  It's all based off random numbers, so until your sample size is infinite big, it'll be close.  For your 25 crops, you found four for every 10 which is 40%.  That's 10% higher than expected, but not unreasonable.


Title: Re: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: Lackey Twisti on August 02, 2011, 12:32:54 am
I think the misunderstanding here is that kaaskop thinks people mean we are talking about crops filled with 100 GRs when we say 100%, while the rest of us means 100% odds of finding ONE GR in a crop. Or 30%, as the matter may be.


Title: Re: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: kaaskop on August 02, 2011, 10:37:35 am
I think the misunderstanding here is that kaaskop thinks people mean we are talking about crops filled with 100 GRs when we say 100%, while the rest of us means 100% odds of finding ONE GR in a crop. Or 30%, as the matter may be.

This exactly. But I got it now, thanks for the info:)


Title: Re: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: [EH?]lazyguy on August 03, 2011, 04:52:03 am
I think everyone in this thread needs to go back to statistics 101 and learn what a confidence interval in hypothesis testing is.

Also, a sample population of only 25 is hardly enough for a real statistician.


Title: Re: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: Sgt Mayer on August 04, 2011, 03:39:55 am
are the odds to FF and DCMs better on personal islands?


Title: Re: Gold radishes on personal island
Post by: arp on August 04, 2011, 06:11:12 am
Not that I know of, but I haven't bothered with a large enough crop number to test it accurately...