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News: MWI whittled a Poplar Post   (Odds: 100%)  (Thirst: 22.65)

Toadwater  |  Toad Server Cage  |  General Support  |  Topic: Too Many Yew from Statues? 0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
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clatra
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« on: November 05, 2008, 05:49:39 am »

Is anyone else noticing if you are getting more Yew Seeds (55) than Purpleheart Seeds (54) and Honeylocust Seeds (53) when wiping? I wiped 1907:1838:1848 but the law of averages should have netted me less than 1838 Yew Seeds if the formula for Yew odds is correct.

If no one else is seeing this, I will chalk it up to odds being odd. But if several people are seeing this, post here (or PM me) with your Yew:Purpleheart:Honeylocust ratio and the buffs you had while wiping then I will summarize the results in a single support ticket (I had forestry, GR, and milk buff during all my wiping).

Thanks.
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clatra sacrificed 38610 Seeds to a Coachwood Tree
Farmboy
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2008, 10:44:20 am »

i dont think anyone cares
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<@[twisti]> youre becoming like a mini-me
<@[twisti]> ill tell you how proud of you i am

<@[twisti]> i cant believe you let farmboy outsmart you
<@Rize> no I didn't.
<@[twisti]> yes you did
sos64
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2008, 12:57:11 pm »

You're pointing at less than 6% difference from the expected, with a random number generator - the chances of getting results like this are fairly high. I suspect the three seeds don't use different formulas so this is almost certainly just random variation.
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clatra
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2008, 01:37:58 pm »

You're pointing at less than 6% difference from the expected, with a random number generator - the chances of getting results like this are fairly high. I suspect the three seeds don't use different formulas so this is almost certainly just random variation.
I keep very careful count of the high level seeds every time I wipe. Since there has always been a nice end-of-a-bell-curve distribution in my experience, I think the odds of the bell curve having a bump at the end are not very high.
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sos64
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2008, 05:31:32 pm »

Perhaps you are right, if someone else keeps as meticulous records of seeds wiped they might be able to confirm, otherwise you could take note of this and watch for the same effect next time you wipe, I still suspect this is a random anomaly and not a systematic error (although I am assuming here that the Toadwater code for seed wiping does something reasonably sensible and simple with it's calculations and that the RNG scales well, either of which may be a fallacy).
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Twisti
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2008, 06:33:08 pm »

I am assuming here that the Toadwater code for seed wiping does something reasonably sensible and simple with it's calculations

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
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clatra
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2008, 08:09:28 pm »

<3 Twisti
 Kiss
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Matt Siegman
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C++ ftw!


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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2008, 04:45:08 am »

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Damn, you beat me to it :-/
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